Former Australian Prime Minister Publishes Books on China:

The two former Australian prime ministers, each publishing a new book this year, differ in their approach to the Chinese issue. Experts point out that the common denominator between the two books is opposition to the threat posed by China in the region and that Australia-China relations will not improve anytime soon.

Common denominator: opposing the regional threat:

posed by China The two former Australian prime ministers each published new books this year, which resonate somewhat with China, although they are aimed at different audiences and purposes. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), an Australian think tank, on September 5 briefly analyzed the two new books about China, noting that John Howard, in his new book, The Balancing Approach, argues that Australia can achieve a balance between key allies and major trading partners, while Kevin Rudd in his book Avoidable War" argues that the United States should not underestimate China's determination and ability to reunify the two sides of the strait, so as to avoid a war with China with a disastrous outcome.

Howard, who belongs to the Liberal Party, is Australia's second-longest serving prime minister (1996-2007), and he maintained a friendly policy towards China during his tenure, but also strengthened relations with Taiwan. His new book, The Balancing Way, includes observations on a range of domestic and foreign policy issues, in terms of his time in politics and his long tenure as prime minister, aimed at the Australian public. He believes that balance is the main axis of Australia's founding and defending its future.

Kevin Rudd, a member of the Labour Party, was Australia's two-time prime minister (2007-2010 and June-September 2013) and fluent in Mandarin, and he built good relations with China's top leaders during his tenure, but Australia-China relations declined later in his first term because of incidents such as Chinese espionage arrests of Australians. Rudd released his new book, "Avoidable War," in the United States this year, which focuses on the conflict between the United States and China. He argues that the catastrophic conflict between the United States and China under Xi Jinping is an "avoidable war" and that only "controlled strategic competition" can achieve a balance of power between the United States and China.

Salvatore Babonis, a professor of sociology at the University of Sydney in Australia, said that Howard had completed a number of domestic policy reforms during his tenure, and there was no significant personal color at the diplomatic level, while the successor Kevin Rudd's China policy in Australia was impressive, especially the analysis of the relationship between the United States and China

Barbos argues that the analysis of China in the two books differs in defining the focus of China policy and has common ground in implementation.

He told VOA: "Kevin Rudd wants Australia to have a better and more active policy response to the fact of China's rise, and Howard does not have a high vision of Australia's role in the region, the difference is that Rudd wants Australia to be more aggressive in formulating China policy, and Howard believes that it should be kept a lower profile, rather than trying to change China's increasingly important role in the world." Western democracies should work together to contain the damage that China's rise does to other countries.

Barbos noted that even if the entry points are different, both sides point to policies that oppose China's threats to areas outside its sovereignty.

Dr. Zhong Jinjiang, who works at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, said in an interview with VOA that Howard had a good relationship between Australia and China during his term as prime minister, and he believed that it was natural for Australia to maintain a balance between the United States and China in a low-key manner, and when Kevin Rudd was in power, Australia-China relations began to decline, until now China is more unfriendly to Australia and poses a serious threat to the Indo-Pacific region, and democracies should face it together.

He said: "When Kevin Rudd was in power, the CCP expected that this Australian prime minister with Chinese origins would make Australia and China better, but it turned out precisely because Rudd had a deeper understanding of the CCP than ordinary Western countries, and Australia-China relations were quite poor in the later years of his administration." I believe that Australia should indeed actively build alliances with countries with the same values, as well as countries of the same language as the United Kingdom and the United States, such as AUKUS (Australia, Britain, and the United States Military Partnership), and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to form Asia's NATO, in order to jointly resist the expansion of the CCP's power.

Zhong Jinjiang believes that democracies often achieve their goals through mechanisms, while the CCP achieves their goals through fraud, and the "controllable strategic competition" advocated by Rudd may not be easy to achieve.


In his new book,
Howard predicts that the bad relationship between Australia and China will continue because Beijing feels "safe to attack Australia" and China is afraid to do so with the United States.

Barbos, a professor of sociology at the University of Sydney in Australia, said the Labor government was gradually understanding that China's attitude towards Australia had nothing to do with Canberra but depended on China's internal political needs, and that Xi Jinping's regime must continue to attack Australia to meet internal needs.

"If Australia finds China more unfriendly to Australia, it's usually because Xi Jinping's regime feels it should have a more aggressive policy towards the region as a whole, not against Australia, because Australia is not important in China's foreign policy at all," he said. China poses a threat to almost every country in the Asian region except Russia, and because China's foreign policy has become a major issue in Chinese politics, and Xi Jinping has used diplomacy to shift focus when the domestic economy is facing difficulties.

Barbs pointed out that after the Australian Labor government came to power at the end of May, it did intend to mend Australia-China relations, and rhetorically avoided topics that China felt sensitive, such as the Taiwan Strait issue. About a month later, Australia discovered that the problem was not diplomacy but China's internal policy, that China's aggressive attitude would not be abated by Australia's shift, and that the honeymoon period between the Labor government and China was over.

Dr. Zhong Jinjiang, who works at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, believes that China's aggressive posture in the region in recent years directly threatens Australia's peace and security, making "tough on China" a consensus between the Australian Labor Party and the ruling Liberal Party.

"Australia's trade with the rest of the world is achieved through maritime shipping, so freedom of navigation at sea is vital to Australia," he said. However, the CCP's sovereignty claims in the South China Sea have directly affected our (Australia's) freedom of navigation, especially some time ago, the CCP's intention to establish military bases in South Pacific Island countries angered Australia. The opposition Labour Party at the time believed that the ruling Liberal Party had failed in handling this matter and had a lot of criticism of the Liberal Party, so in the diplomacy of the South Pacific Island countries, the Labor Party's anti-China stance would probably only be tougher than that of the Liberal Party. 

The possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait is low, but local conflicts:


will occur Howard is more optimistic about the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. He believes that a war with Taiwan will invite US intervention and make China pay too high a price, so China will only increase pressure on Taiwan, but dare not invade Taiwan, and local conflicts are more likely. Rudd said the Taiwan conflict would soon turn into a catastrophic all-out war, not a limited conflict.

Barbos, a professor of sociology at the University of Sydney in Australia, agrees with Howard. He believes that there will be no real war in the Taiwan Strait, but there will be local conflicts such as the downing of aircraft.

"Neither China nor Taiwan will wage a full-scale war like Russia and Ukraine at present," he said. If a war in the Taiwan Strait is launched, it will severely depress China's economy. On the other hand, even if China captures Kinmen and Matsu, will Taiwan declare war on China? I think not, Taiwan will protest, democratic countries will impose sanctions on China, but cross-strait economic and trade exchanges will continue, and there are still millions of Taiwanese working in China.

Barbos said that in the future, it is expected that there will be more frequent clashes such as Chinese missiles passing through Taiwan's airspace and aircraft or drones being shot down by either side of the strait, but the losses to either side of the all-out war are too high for either side to be possible.

Dr. Zhong Jinjiang, who works at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, believes that since the establishment of AUKUS, Australia has a greater role in fighting China in the free zone, and the Taiwan Strait issue will directly affect Australia-China relations. China's increasing pressure on Taiwan has also made Australia more worried about the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

"If we compare China with Taiwan alone, China's force is indeed too strong, but the security and peace guarantee in the Taiwan Strait depends on the extent to which the United States and the free world intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue," he said. I think what China should be warned about this year is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and in the short term, the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait. This time, the United States and Western countries basically unanimously support the anti-aggression war in Ukraine, so if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, we are increasingly confident that the United States and the free world will not hesitate to go to war to defend Taiwan.

Zhong Jinjiang said that after all, war is about strength, and if Australia, the United States and other free world allies can clearly express their resistance to China's annexation of Taiwan, Xi Jinping will definitely not dare to launch a war against Taiwan.